Quantifying Climate Risks for EUCRA-2 

ECMWF, in the frame of the European Commission’s initiative Destination Earth (DestinE), is contributing to the second European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA-2), scheduled for publication in the third quarter of 2028. The first assessment, published by the European Environment Agency (EEA), identified urgent and growing risks, including those linked to flooding, extreme heat and disruptions to energy systems. EUCRA-2 aims to build on this work with more detailed quantitative analysis and deeper insights into how Europe can adapt to these risks. 

While data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service, implemented by ECMWF, is used to assess how the European climate has been changing and how hazards may be modulated by these developments, a set of targeted projects are using simulations from DestinE’s Climate Change Adaptation Digital Twin (Climate DT), together with other datasets and modelling tools, to assess some of these risks in greater detail. They examine how interacting flood drivers could affect coastal regions, how climate change impacts Europe’s energy system, and how rising temperatures in urban areas are expected to influence health and working conditions. The work will provide indicators, maps and case studies for EUCRA-2, helping decision-makers identify where climate risks may grow and demonstrating how measures to reduce their impacts across Europe may be assessed. 

Quantifying Compound Flood Risk 

Flood risk across Europe is often shaped by compound events, where multiple drivers such as intense rainfall, high river discharge, and elevated coastal water levels occur together. These events can lead to impacts that are greater than those caused by any single hazard alone. 

Deltares, together with the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute supports EUCRA-2 by developing a consistent approach to assessing compound flood risk across Europe. The project leverages the capabilities of the Climate DT together with Copernicus climate, hydrological and coastal datasets to provide new insights into how flood hazards and impacts may change under future climate conditions. 

Impact  

The project develops a harmonised framework for assessing compound flood hazard, exposure, and risk across European coastal regions. Using DestinE climate simulations, the project generates pan-European indicators showing where flood hazards may increase and where people, infrastructure, and assets could be most exposed. 

Complementing the continental-scale assessment, two high-impact flood events are analysed in detail using DestinE storyline simulations. These case studies demonstrate how compound flooding develops under realistic conditions and how local impacts can change under future climates. 

The project also assesses selected adaptation measures using the FloodAdapt decision-support platform. By comparing baseline and adaptation scenarios, it demonstrates how actions such as flood protection, nature-based solutions, or other locally relevant measures can help reduce flood impacts and improve climate resilience. 

Together, the project delivers flood hazard, impact, and risk indicators, detailed case-study analyses, adaptation assessments, and visual products that will contribute directly to EUCRA-2. 

Main contractor: Deltares  

Subcontractor: Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) 

Quantifying Risks to the European Energy System  

Climate change and extreme weather events are having a growing impact on the European energy system, from demand-side, such as heat-waves, and generation such as Dunkelflaute events (often referred to as events with very little wind and/or solar radiation in times of high demand for energy), and on physical infrastructure (e.g., during storms). At the same time, Europe is increasing its share of renewable energy – especially wind and solar – in its energy mix. This project aims to provide a quantified risk assessment from selected extreme weather conditions relevant for the European energy sector, by harnessing advanced climate simulation capabilities from the Climate Digital Twin. These assessments are aimed for grid operators and project developers, as well as for policy makers, regulators and other stakeholders working toward a more secure and reliable energy system in Europe.   

Impact 

To reach these objectives, this project focuses on two types of extreme weather events: heat waves and floods. Powered by existing tools and applications, such as DestinE’s Machine Learning Demonstrator Energy Systems, gained knowledge from energy modelling and existing datasets on the European electricity grids, the project will deliver a robust, transparent and quantitative description of climate‑hazard exposure from these conditions. In addition, it will provide users with concrete recommendations for integrating climate‑risk assessments into energy system planning and into climate-adaptation measures. 

Main contractor: Institute of Networked Energy Systems of the German Aerospace Center (DLR) 

Subcontractor: Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) and Renewables Grid Initiative (RGI).  

Quantifying Heat-related Health Risk  

Europe is experiencing more frequent, intense and persistent heat extremes, with growing consequences for health, work and daily life. Detailed assessments of heat are nevertheless missing, mainly due to a lack of high-resolution hazard, exposure and vulnerability data. Yet decision-makers need evidence that links climatic hazards to the people, places and systems affected, at both European and local scales. 

This project uses Climate DT data and established climate and health methods to develop a consistent, policy-relevant picture of current and future heat-related health risk across Europe. 

Impact 

At continental scale, the project produces harmonised indicators of heat hazards, drawing on historical observations and climate projections. These include tropical nights, Excess Heat Factor-based heatwave severity and the duration of strong heat stress, expressed through the Universal Thermal Climate Index. The hazards are combined with demographic, social and health information to assess population exposure, estimated heat-attributable mortality and heat-related losses in working hours. Results are reported at country, NUTS and EUCRA-2 regional levels, while clearly documenting methods, assumptions and uncertainty. 

The European assessment is complemented by detailed analyses for three Functional Urban Areas. Using VITO’s UrbClim model, the project maps selected heat and health indicators at 100 m resolution for present and future conditions. It also assesses heat-related morbidity and associated healthcare costs, explore local vulnerability patterns, and evaluate how selected grey, blue and green adaptation measures – for example reducing impervious surfaces, increasing tree cover or restoring riparian vegetation – could reduce heat exposure and health risks. 

The project translates its findings into maps, visuals and concise heat-health storylines for EUCRA-2, demonstrating how Destination Earth can support climate-risk assessment, heat-health action planning and urban adaptation across Europe. 

Main contractor: VITO – Flemish Institute for Technological Research  
Subcontractor: CoLAB +ATLANTIC 

Discover more DestinE use cases.

Credit title image: European Environment Agency (EEA)