The paper highlights the efforts undertaken within the Destination Earth (DestinE) initiative of the European Commission to operationalise a framework that enables the production of global high-resolution climate and impact-sector information on multi-decadal timescales and the assessment of plausible “what-if” scenarios.
The article ‘The Destination Earth digital twin for climate change adaptation’ featured as a highlight paper in the journal Geoscientific Model Development in April 2026 was led by Francisco Doblas-Reyes from the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) and co-authored by over 100 scientists from the institutions implementing the Climate Change Adaptation Digital Twin (Climate DT) through a partnership led by the CSC – IT Center for Science (CSC), in close collaboration with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
One of the main challenges for effectively supporting climate adaptation is the difficulty in translating global climate projections into information that is both timely and relevant at the local level. Impacts are often experienced at much smaller scales than those typically represented by global models, and current climate projections frequently do not provide the sector-specific details needed for targeted adaptation strategies.
Storyline simulation From Past to Future – The Central European Floods, 2024 in a Changing Climate.” The panels compare accumulated precipitation near Vienna under past (1950), present, and future (+2°C) climate conditions. These visualisations are allowed by the simulations produced with the Climate DT. Credit: AWI Climate DT team.
“This paper documents the first operational implementation of a digital twin designed specifically to support climate change adaptation. It describes how kilometre‑scale global climate simulations, storyline-based simulations, uncertainty information and impact‑sector applications can be brought together within a single workflow to deliver decision‑relevant climate information,” said lead author and Earth Sciences Department Director at BSC and ICREA research professor Francisco J Doblas Reyes.
“This work stands as a remarkable achievement—not only in terms of operationalizing a modelling framework capable of producing climate and impact sector information on multi-decadal time scales at unprecedented resolutions, but also as a testament to the collective effort behind it. None of this would have been possible without the expertise, dedication, and interdisciplinary collaboration of so many colleagues and partners across Europe. It truly reflects what can be accomplished when we bring together diverse skills and perspectives in pursuit of a shared goal,” said Irina Sandu, Director for Destination Earth at ECMWF.
applications and a comprehensive monitoring and quality assessment procedure. User feedback is regularly incorporated in the Climate DT
design (hence the thick arrows pointing in both directions) so that the global information with local granularity adequately supports climate
adaptation decision-making.
From climate projections to adaptation decisions
Traditional climate modelling efforts, such as global model intercomparison projects or regional downscaling exercises, have been essential for advancing climate science. However, they are typically updated in multi‑year cycles and at times do not provide the data underpinning the information at the spatial or temporal scales needed for sectors such as energy, water, forestry, or urban planning.
The Climate DT is designed to complement these existing approaches by moving towards continuous, tailored production of climate information. It delivers global climate projections on multi-decadal timescales, at spatial resolutions of 5–10 km with hourly outputs, enabling consistent local-scale information worldwide. This global consistency is particularly important for equity: regions with limited modelling capacity can gain access to the same quality of climate information as those with long-established climate services.
The Climate DT also delivers physically consistent extreme‑event storylines, allowing to examine how recent extreme events would unfold under different climate conditions.
The Climate DT is now completing a new set of simulations, leveraging the world-class supercomputing systems of the European High-Performance Computing Joint Undertaking (EuroHPC). These new simulations, which include both multi-decadal climate projections (up to 2050) and storyline simulations of extreme events that occurred from 2017 to the end of 2025, will shortly become available via the DestinE platform.
A unified workflow
The Climate DT is underpinned by a comprehensive end‑to‑end workflow that connects the kilometre‑scale global Earth system models – ICON, IFS‑FESOM and IFS‑NEMO – with sectoral applications and allows to produce the digital twin simulations. This workflow, part of the Digital Twin Engine, ensures automation, reproducibility, traceability, and long‑term maintainability of the Climate DT system.
Model outputs are harmonised through a Generic State Vector and the use of HEALPix grids, facilitating both high-resolution data analysis and the derivation of tailored impact sector information. The workflow also incorporates the AQUA framework, which allows simulations to be evaluated in real time and uncertainties to be quantified, helping to build confidence in this new climate information system.
Running several models enables a better representation of uncertainty, which is critical for adaptation planning.
Built through a co‑design approach
A key innovation of the Climate DT is its emphasis on co‑production with actors from climate-sensitive sectors. The aim is to enable impact modellers, climate‑service providers, or policy analysts to influence simulation design, output variables, and application workflows. This two‑way interaction helps ensure that the climate information produced is not only scientifically robust but also salient and usable.
Sector‑specific applications are embedded directly into the Climate DT, translating climate variables into tailored indicators for areas such as energy production or water management. These applications were co‑designed with informed users, helping bridge the long‑standing gap between climate modelling and practical decision‑making.
Supporting climate adaptation in a warming world
The authors stress that the Climate DT will complement established climate modelling efforts such as CMIP or CORDEX. Synergies with these initiatives are already being identified. The paper provides a comprehensive overview of the Climate DT’s key innovations, ranging from multi‑decadal, kilometre‑scale climate projections and storyline simulations to co‑designed sectoral applications and integrated AI and machine‑learning technologies. Together, these elements illustrate a new approach to producing climate information in support of climate adaptation, as climate risks grow, and policy frameworks such as the European Green Deal demand faster and more targeted responses.
This video shows the energy use case (wind, in this case), developed at the Earth Sciences Department of the Barcelona Supercomputing Center for the Destination Earth Climate Change Digital Twin. Credit: BSC
The Climate DT, procured by ECMWF in the framework of Destination Earth is developed through a contract led by CSC-IT Center for Science and includes Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC), German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ), National Meteorological Service of Germany (DWD), Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Polytechnic University of Turin (POLITO), Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ) and University of Helsinki (UH), in close collaboration with ECMWF.
Destination Earth is a European Union funded initiative launched in 2022, with the aim to build a digital replica of the Earth system by 2030. The initiative is being jointly implemented under the leadership of DG CNECT, by three entrusted entities: the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) responsible for the creation of the first two ‘digital twins’ and the ‘Digital Twin Engine’, the European Space Agency (ESA) responsible for building the ‘Core Service Platform’, and the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), responsible for the creation of the ‘Data Lake’.
We acknowledge the EuroHPC Joint Undertaking for awarding DestinE strategic access to the EuroHPC supercomputers LUMI, hosted by CSC (Finland) and the LUMI consortium, Marenostrum5, hosted by BSC (Spain) Leonardo, hosted by Cineca (Italy) and MeluXina, hosted by LuxProvide (Luxembourg) through a EuroHPC Special Access call.
More information about Destination Earth is on the Destination Earth website and the EU Commission website.
