A new set of high-resolution simulations produced with the Climate Change Adaptation Digital Twin (Climate DT) of the EU initiative Destination Earth (DestinE) has recently become accessible via the DestinE Platform. They are accompanied by a viewer allowing to easily explore some of the climate storyline simulations. These simulations are also described in detail in a scientific paper released recently.
The storyline simulations produced with one of the Climate DT global km-scale climate models explore how weather events that occurred across the world during the period 2017-2025, would unfold in different climates: past, present and future conditions corresponding to a 2ºC warmer world compared to pre-industrial warming levels.
The storylines viewer, developed by ESA and the Earth Observation specialist firm Gael Systems and made available on the DestinE platform in beta-release phase allows users to explore two events: the 2019 European heatwave and the 2024 Central European floods.
Users can visualise the results of the simulations of three different climates side by side and zoom in and out over the region affected by the event. It is also possible to explore and compare simulation results for any point in that region. For example, at the peak of the 2019 European heatwave, we can see that the simulated temperature in Paris reached 38ºC under present-day conditions, compared with 36ºC in the past climate and 40ºC in a 2ºC warmer world.
At around 10 km resolution, the simulations capture temperature differences across Paris, including contrasts between densely built-up areas affected by urban heat islands and the cooler, greener zones around the city.
It is also possible to interactively visualise simulation results for the different climate conditions, for pre-defined regions or for areas defined by simply drawing an area on the screen.
New generation of Climate DT simulations
As DestinE enters Phase III, a new set of Climate DT simulations has been recently released. This new release includes global multi-decadal simulations and storyline simulations of weather events that occurred between 2017 and 2025, produced with upgraded kilometre-scale models, impact-sector applications and newly defined operational workflows. A new Climate DT user guide is also available, providing information on the simulations, model evaluation, data access methods and practical notebook examples of how to analyse the data.
The new Climate DT data now is available via the DestinE Platform. The simulations were enabled by strategic access to the EuroHPC supercomputers LUMI and MareNostrum5, and are made available through the DestinE infrastructure, including the DestinE Data Lake and Platform.
New paper unveils the details of the storyline simulations
A new scientific paper published in the Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems provides a comprehensive description of the work to produce storylines of extreme weather events. The study, titled “Global kilometre-scale climate storylines using spectral nudging”, describes the methods used to simulate weather events under different climate conditions, while preserving the original large-scale meteorological situation.
The study, led by scientists at the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) and involving partners across Europe, including the Barcelona Supercomputing Centre (BSC) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), contributes to outlining the methodologies used to implement DestinE’s Climate Change Adaptation Digital Twin (Climate DT). By documenting how high-resolution simulations can be used to explore how recent extreme events would unfold in colder, present-day or warmer climates, the paper supports the Climate DT objective of providing detailed, globally consistent climate information.
The paper highlights the storyline framework through examples, including the July 2019 European heatwave and Storm Boris, which caused severe flooding and damage in central and eastern Europe in September 2024 and can now be explored with the Prismera Viewer.
Climate storylines of weather events
Understanding how extreme events may change in a warming climate remains a key scientific challenge. While global climate models provide robust large-scale projections, their spatial resolution can limit their ability to represent the processes that shape local impacts.
The storyline simulations produced with the Climate DT focus on observed events and ask how those events would unfold in different climate states. Rather than estimating changes in likelihood, they address “what if” questions such as: given a particular large-scale weather situation, how would the event develop in a colder, present-day or warmer climate?
Using spectral nudging techniques, the simulations constrain the large-scale atmospheric circulation to the ERA5 reanalysis produced by ECMWF in the Copernicus Climate Change Service, while allowing smaller-scale processes to develop freely at high resolution. This makes it possible to replay weather extreme events while maintaining consistency with observed large-scale weather patterns.
Bridging weather events and climate information
A central aim of this work is to help bridge the gap between weather-scale extremes and climate-scale assessments. Many impacts of extreme events, such as flooding, heat stress or wind damage, occur at spatial scales that are not fully resolved by traditional global climate models.
By combining large-scale constraints with kilometre-scale simulations, the framework allows for the representation of localised features while maintaining consistency with the large-scale circulation. This is particularly relevant where detailed spatial information is needed, for example in complex terrain, coastal regions or urban environments.
Within DestinE, this makes climate change more tangible, allowing the exploration of how high-impact events that have already occurred may evolve in different climates, supporting a clearer understanding of potential risks and adaptation needs.
Documenting the methodology
The publication provides a structured description of methods that are being used within DestinE, placing them in a broader context. It highlights how kilometre-scale simulations, ERA5 reanalysis data and spectral nudging can be combined within a unified modelling framework.
By documenting the methodology in a peer-reviewed setting, the study provides a reference point for understanding how the storyline simulations available through DestinE are produced and interpreted.
The work is part of the broader European collaboration behind the Climate DT, implemented through a partnership led by CSC – IT Center for Science in close collaboration with ECMWF, and involving climate institutions, supercomputing centres, national meteorological services, and academia across Europe.
Looking ahead
As DestinE continues to evolve, the ability to produce high-resolution storyline simulations of weather extreme events will remain an important component of the Climate DT.
Together with the recently released Climate DT data, the user guide and the Prismera Storyline Viewer on the DestinE Platform, this paper helps connect the scientific methodology with the data and tools now available to users.
By detailing the storyline approach through peer-reviewed publication, the study represents an important step in supporting its uptake and use for climate adaptation.
The Climate DT, procured by ECMWF in the framework of Destination Earth is developed through a contract led by CSC-IT Center for Science and includes Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC), German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ), National Meteorological Service of Germany (DWD), Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Polytechnic University of Turin (POLITO), Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ) and University of Helsinki (UH), in close collaboration with ECMWF.
Destination Earth is a European Union funded initiative launched in 2022, with the aim to build a digital replica of the Earth system by 2030. The initiative is being jointly implemented under the leadership of DG CNECT, by three entrusted entities: the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) responsible for the implementation of the two ‘digital twins’, the ‘Digital Twin Engine’ and the AI Earth system model, the European Space Agency (ESA) responsible for implementation the DestinE Platform, and the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), responsible for the implementation of the ‘Data Lake’.
We acknowledge the EuroHPC Joint Undertaking for awarding DestinE strategic access through a EuroHPC Special Access call to the EuroHPC supercomputers LUMI, hosted by CSC (Finland) and the LUMI consortium, Marenostrum5, hosted by BSC (Spain), which were used to produce the Climate DT simulations.
More information about Destination Earth is on the Destination Earth website and the EU Commission website.
